Mid-Year Market Analysis: The Run Specialty Channel Remains Healthy Despite a Soft Start to 2026

Click the download link to the right (must be logged into portal as a member) for the August By The Numbers report. Additionally, read additional thoughts from David Durkin from Karnan Associates below.

Our tracking is similar: the first half of the year shows a slight dollar increase, while transactions and footwear units are down. We're tracking a similar increase in the selling price, up close to $6 over last year. This is a bigger jump than we saw in 2025. Notably, the rolling 12M change for July-June is +0.11% with 6 months up and 6 months down.  Margin rates have remained high, softening the impact of footwear sales drops. This is at least partially attributable to the joint efforts of vendors and retailers to manage overall inventory levels, particularly around model updates. 

For March, we see a few factors. One factor is that January and February were both relatively strong and many markets did not have extended extreme weather. This likely pulled some demand forward, spreading it over the quarter instead of concentrating it into March. Another factor was that March 2025 had 5 Saturdays, while this year had 4. In March and April, the average Saturday is 40-60% higher than any other day of the week. That doesn't account for 11%, but it accounts for 1-2% and put a negative exclamation point on the month. The Q1 and YTD numbers offer a truer look at our trajectory. 

Even with footwear dropping, we are flat overall for the first half, and around half of the industry is up. That means we're winning somewhere, and that somewhere is in both accessories and apparel. We've tracked 11 consecutive months of growth in accessories and 6 months of growth in apparel, both following sustained drops. We're seeing training and staff education continue to level up the in store experience and that is carrying through to the numbers. We are also seeing efforts to continuously update and curate assortments in both departments to drive more sales. Nutrition is an example of a category where there has often been a fear of cannibalization when adding brands, but it's now a category of constant change. This is more work for buyers, but it's driving growth as customers look to discover and try new products in-store. Insoles have benefitted as stores hone in on their fit experience as a market differentiator. 

Another positive trend is increasingly impactful partnerships occurring between vendors and retailers. We're seeing retailers take big swings and vendors are getting on board with them. From our vantage point, we see a vendor community that trusts run specialty stores to meet customers where they are and introduce products in an authentic and approachable way both inside the four walls of the store and out in their communities. That looks different in each market, but that's why run specialty stores are the best at it, they know their communities and how to best reach their neighbors. Retailers are continuing to invest heavily in new locations, renovations, and growing their teams. The positive impacts from those investments will be seen well past this year. 

We're optimistic that the second half of 2026 can match or beat the first half. We expect continued wins in accessories and apparel, with footwear buoyed by a strong batch of updates and new releases this summer and fall. It is definitely a grind out there, but it's resulting in innovation and creativity that will have long term benefits.