Q3 Mastermind Takeaways

Key Takeaways

• Sales Patterns Remain Predictably Unpredictable - Through August, specialty run sales are up 8% year-to-date, with comp-store sales estimated at roughly 5% growth. 2025 has seen sharper month-to-month swings compared to 2024, with regional differences amplified by mixed economic news, fluctuating tourism traffic, and income-driven shifts in consumer behavior.
• Footwear Leads the Charge - Nearly every store reported footwear outpacing overall store growth. The average ticket size is now $135.36, up nearly $4 from FY 2024 ($131.66), underscoring footwear’s role as the primary revenue driver.
• Monthly Volume Reverts to Pre-Pandemic Norms - Prior to COVID, March and August were reliably the two highest-volume months for specialty. From 2021–2024, sales flattened across spring and summer, reducing March and August’s dominance. In 2025, sales have returned to the “camel-hump” seasonal pattern—with March and August again emerging as peaks, despite some regional variability. (See graph below.)

Key Action Items

• Track ROY vs. YTD Trends - Expect more of the same through Q4. Many Mastermind members are using their year-to-date growth percentage as the baseline for forecasting their rest-of-year (ROY) performance.
• Plan Holiday Early – Think “Black Halloween” - In 2024, holiday sales were muted following a strong October. Large retailers, including Amazon, launched Black Friday promotions in early November, catching many specialty stores off guard. For 2025, consider early October—around Amazon Prime Day—as the true kickoff to holiday promotions.
• Focus Marketing on Repeat Visits - New customers continue to drive specialty running retail, generating 36% of total revenue in 2025. But the average gap between returning customer visits has grown from 254 days in 2024 to 274 days in 2025. Use win-back campaigns, targeted email, and even analog direct mail to re-engage your database and shorten the time between visits.